Martes, 28 de julio de 2026
ANALYSIS
European Pulse: Why Madrid, Paris, and Rome no longer buy the dream of Brussels
While Europe still functions as an identity anchor for many of its citizens, that link seems not to translate into personal optimism for the future. Country-comparison data provided at the 'European Pulse Forum' suggests that one can defend and believe in the European way of life, but at the same time view the near future with pessimism. This political tension is among the most significant for Europe and will remain so for the short term. Here we examine a survey being closely read at the Commission, indicating a certain schism between EU citizens and institutions.
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Adrian Jofre Bosch, partner at the beBartlet consultancy, presents the main survey findings at the European Pulse ForumPOLITICO / Tsun Ho and Rocío Curia
Even as the lights dim at the European Pulse Forum in Barcelona, the data on the table depicts a Spain that has chosen to rely on Brussels. European Pulse is an initiative promoted by POLITICO Europe and the beBartlet consultancy, created with the aim of using European public opinion data as a compass for structuring debates at the highest level on security, energy, mobility, and competitiveness. For its initial survey, 6,698 people were interviewed in six countries of the European Union.
In a year marked by global uncertainty, Spain isn't just one of the most pro-European countries in the survey sample; it's also among those who expect the most from the Union because it is also among those countries with the lowest trust in its own strengths.
Beneath a long tradition of alignment with European values lies a personal pessimism that could serve as the fuse for the next crisis of governance in southern Europe.
In contrast, 67.4% of Spaniards now classify the U.S. as a competitor or threat. This is crucial to understanding why Spain – traditionally reluctant to spend militarily – now embraces the idea of a joint European military force (77%). Far from a warmongering stance, this position is a logical conclusion for those who feel isolated in the Southern Neighborhood.
The success of the Union over the next two years won't be measured only by the number of strong defense treaties, but by increases in personal optimism in Madrid, Paris, and Rome. Otherwise, Poland will remain the only country in the sample that combines symbolic approval for the EU with clear majorities expressing personal optimism.
In a year marked by global uncertainty, Spain isn't just one of the most pro-European countries in the survey sample; it's also among those who expect the most from the Union because it is also among those countries with the lowest trust in its own strengths.
Beneath a long tradition of alignment with European values lies a personal pessimism that could serve as the fuse for the next crisis of governance in southern Europe.
Fortress Europe, and Spain as a point of support for autonomy
Although the concept of strategic autonomy was a dream born in France, today it has become a widespread conviction in Spain. On that point, 94.1% of Spaniards insist that the EU should be self-sufficient – more than all the other countries surveyed by POLITICO and beBartlet. For Spain, autonomy is a matter of survival, in terms of both energy and industry."Spanish citizens understand that on the chessboard of 2026, where China and the U.S. play by their own rules, to be small is to be irrelevant"Support for the creation of "European champions" in the energy sector (96.4%) is almost unanimous, although that figure is even higher in Belgium, at 97%. This could be interpreted as evidence that Spanish citizens understand that on the chessboard of 2026, where China and the U.S. play by their own rules, to be small is to be irrelevant.
The fear factor, and goodbye to the "American dream"
If anything has changed in the Spanish geopolitical psyche across recent months, it's the perception of Washington. While Poland still looks across the Atlantic with certain confidence (57.8% of Poles still consider the U.S. an ally or partner), Spain leads the bloc of skeptics.In contrast, 67.4% of Spaniards now classify the U.S. as a competitor or threat. This is crucial to understanding why Spain – traditionally reluctant to spend militarily – now embraces the idea of a joint European military force (77%). Far from a warmongering stance, this position is a logical conclusion for those who feel isolated in the Southern Neighborhood.
The "Glass Wall" of personal pessimism
Turning to personal expectations, the analysis reveals some bitterness toward Spain's own government as well as Brussels. Spain is living a contradiction worth highlighting: its citizens love the Union, but their view of the future at home is less than clear."For the average Spaniard, the EU is a shield against disaster but not an engine of success"Only 39% of Spaniards are optimistic about their personal future, compared to 70% in Poland. That gap is very significant for European cohesion. The East feels like the new driving force of the continent, while the South (with Italy and France in the background, and Spain still far behind Germany and especially Poland) lingers in a state of persistent pessimism. For the average Spaniard, the EU is a shield against disaster but not an engine of success.
The green transition will not be televised, but it will be paid for
In the survey – fieldwork for which was carried out by Cluster17 – Spain debunks one of Brussels' great myths: social consensus around the 2035 end-date for sales of new petrol- and diesel-fueled autos. While 59.4% of Spaniards oppose that measure, 68.1% support larger investments in public transport. As such, Spain seems to embrace sustainability only when it is considered socially fair and technologically viable. The green transition isn't rejected, but instruments are rejected when perceived to be inaccessible.Housing is Europe's new battlefield
Spaniards rank public housing as the main priority (66.9%) over other redistributive policies. Although this might be the twentieth warning, it should be taken as a definitive sign that the European social contract is being broken by bricks and mortar. Brussels needs to speed legislation and financing of housing solutions. If citizens see no response, their sense of belonging to the "European way of life" (still currently high, at 81%) will start to erode. In other words, people can't defend a lifestyle that they can't afford.Leadership by necessity
Spain is approaching the halfway point of 2026 as one of the most diligent students in the European class. However, the country appears to study not from ambition, nor in hopes of joint improvement, but out of persistent anxiety."If that protection fails to translate into individual optimism and tangible improvements in quality of life, then Europeanism in Spain will cease to be the pillar of stability that it is today"Spanish leadership in Brussels is today both necessary and solid, but its balance is precarious: handing over industrial and energy sovereignty in exchange for collective protection. If that protection fails to translate into individual optimism and tangible improvements in quality of life – housing, energy, mobility – then Europeanism in Spain will cease to be the pillar of stability that it is today.
The success of the Union over the next two years won't be measured only by the number of strong defense treaties, but by increases in personal optimism in Madrid, Paris, and Rome. Otherwise, Poland will remain the only country in the sample that combines symbolic approval for the EU with clear majorities expressing personal optimism.
Ahora en portada
27 de julio de 2026
27 de julio de 2026
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