Portugal is no longer the exception: Chega establishes itself

The 2025 Portuguese parliamentary election, held last Sunday, largely legitimized the center-right government of Luís Montenegro. The early election had been called after the government failed to pass a confidence vote in Parliament, following allegations of a conflict of interest involving the Prime Minister's family business. The outcome was favourable to Aliança Democrática (a coalition between Partido Social Democrata and Centro Democrático Social — Partido Popular), who won the election with nearly 33% of the national vote and electing 89 MPs (up 10 from last year's election). 4 seats, from the constituencies abroad, are still to be assigned as the votes have not yet been counted, but the AD already secured more MPs than all left-wing parties combined.

"AD's victory is overshadowed by the further growth of the radical right party Chega"

However, the AD's victory is overshadowed by the further growth of the radical right party Chega. With 58 MPs already elected (23% of the national votes), as many as the historical Partido Socialista (23% of the national votes)—a foundational party of Portuguese democracy—, they are likely to lead the opposition to the centre-right government (Chega elected 2 out of the 4 MPs from the constituencies abroad in 2024, the Socialists only 1).

The party had already done well in last year's election, but its influence was largely concentrated in a few electoral districts, most notably Faro, in the Algarve. Now, Chega's votes have become significantly more diffuse, even if mostly concentrated in rural areas in the South. Noticeably, Chega was the most voted party in a total of 60 municipalities; the Socialists only in 33. With local elections scheduled for the 21st of September, this setting seems highly favourable to the radical right populists' chances.

"Whether this reconfiguration will translate into two —left vs. right— or three blocks —left vs. right vs. radical right— shall fundamentally depend on the potential agreements between the AD and Chega"

By challenging the de facto two-party dominance of the Partido Socialista and Partido Social Democrata over the Portuguese party system throughout the last five decades, this election produced structural changes. "Nothing will remain as before", claimed Ventura, Chega's leader, on the night of the election. Whether this reconfiguration will translate into two —left vs. right— or three blocks —left vs. right vs. radical right— shall fundamentally depend on the potential agreements between the AD and Chega. So far, the AD had maintained a policy of cordon sanitaire, and refused to make any longstanding agreements with Chega.

However, despite having increased its electoral representation, the AD still falls short of a majority in Parliament. While speculations frequently arose during the campaign, that they might form an agreement with Iniciativa Liberal, the two parties did not elect sufficient MPs to secure a combined majority. In the aftermath of the election, the AD hints at revising its no means no stance towards Chega, expressing openness to dialogue with every other party.

Yet, the continuous growth of Chega in such a short period may provide little incentives for agreements with the AD. Chega is about to take the role of leading the opposition, at a moment where the Portuguese economy shows first signs of inverting the positive trend that has been lasting for the past years. At the same time, the government is expected to continue facing challenges related to the national health system, soaring house market prices, and other important dossiers. Such socio-political background may represent an ideal context for a party like Chega to prepare a sustained opposition to the government. The minority AD government hinges on a fragile stability, and if elections happen soon, Chega may want to be in a position to aim for winning this time.

The combined results of right-wing parties amount to more than two thirds of all elected MPs, conferring an extraordinary chance for constitutional amendments. The last time the Constitution was amended was in 2005. The Iniciativa Liberal already expressed its intent to propose an amendment aimed at reducing the role of the State in the economy, and Chega one to allow for life sentences. The AD is yet to pronounce itself regarding these or other proposals. 

Of the four left-wing parties represented in Parliament, only Livre managed to increase its vote shares (4% of the national votes). The Communists and Bloco de Esquerda both lost MPs, but the electoral outcome was particularly damaging for the Socialist Party. Not only were the Socialists matched by Chega, but there are also indications from aggregate analyses of the results that there may have been significant vote transfers from them to Chega.

"Held as one of the last strongholds of the left in Europe just a couple of years ago, the centre-left in Portugal seems to inevitably follow the downward trend of its European counterparts"

Held as one of the last strongholds of the left in Europe just a couple of years ago, the centre-left in Portugal seems to inevitably follow the downward trend of its European counterparts. As it happened with the growth of the radical right, Portugal is a late arriver, but cannot remain forever immune to the same factors that shape political competition elsewhere. While the individual-level data on voting behaviour necessary to explain this downfall will remain unavailable for the next weeks, the diagnosis is not expected to differ significantly from that of other social democratic parties in Europe.

The Socialist leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, resigned on the very night of the election. The party now seeks to appoint a new leader quickly to reorganize in time for the local elections. Among the party ranks, it is already taken for granted that the profile of the new leader needs to be more consensual rather confrontational towards the AD. Building bridges with the AD is perceived as necessary to regain credibility among the electorate, while ensuring government stability and excluding the radical right from power. But would such a strategy from the mainstream parties undermine or end up further catalysing Chega?