Miércoles, 29 de julio de 2026
GEOPOLITICS
Three ideas for the EU to counter the predatory US administration
IE University Professor Ilke Toygür contends that as long as Trump remains in office, the US is not a reliable ally but a predatory power. In response, the EU should kickstart a dialogue with China, work on green finance and trade agreements, and focus on its security, without leaving behind the issues of arms control.
The long night for Transatlantic relations has begun.Unsplash / NASA
With the election of Donald Trump to the White House, the discussions on the future of European security architecture and international trade have intensified in Europe. Scholars and politicians alike, started to offer their take on how to Trump proof Europe, without burning bridges between historical allies. Many thought that if we could survive these four years —like we have done the last time— we could just be fine.
Donald Trump's second term has ushered us in what can only be described as a predatory Administration. His maximalist positions, amplified by the influence of tech oligarchs like Elon Musk, mark a clear new era in US foreign policy. For Europe, this presidency demands a fundamental recalibration of its approach to the United States and to its global partnerships.
The America First discourse has already been matched with decisive demonstrations of power. Trump's initial moves —in Greenland, Panama, and Colombia— signal a shock-and-awe strategy aimed at forcing concessions. Though his brinkmanship is not new, its intensity highlights his continued willingness to upend established norms.
The core lesson for Europe is stark: Trump does not value traditional allies or alliances. His Administration acts purely in perceived US interests and Trump himself, it could be argued, sometimes acts solely in his own interest and of his inner circle. Europe can no longer rely on the historical ally rhetoric. It is not at all realistic.
One of the more unpredictable aspects of Trump's presidency is his approach to China. His inauguration speech hinted at a potential thaw in tensions. Yet, he is risk-averse when it comes to defending Taiwan. This contrasts with traditional hardline institutional positions, which could lead to an internal tug-of-war and a more inconsistent China policy for the US. High turnover within the Trump Administration adds another layer of uncertainty.
So the ball is also on China's court. The starting point would be a clear signalling that China will not be supporting Russia's war efforts in Ukraine and is genuinely open to fairer trade relations. This may sound like wishful thinking —and it might be so—. But this does not change the fact that the EU needs a distinct China policy. Otherwise, it risks being left out in the cold while great powers strike deals.
Trump's second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement creates an opportunity for the EU to position itself as the global vanguard, building climate-friendly coalitions and trade agreements. Mitigating climate change and green energy transition is an existential issue in the countries of the Global South, and it's the path to building their economies for the future. Europe should put a mutually beneficial green transition at the heart of its conversations. This won't be easy since there is a risk of comparative advantage for the businesses elsewhere, so the efforts abroad should be matched with efforts at home.
While President Trump is unlikely to withdraw from NATO outright, his Administration will undermine it continuously and soon start reducing the US' military presence in Europe. Europe must prepare for this by investing in its own defence capabilities and reducing dependency on the US. This has already become the common wisdom in Brussels and EU capitals with the recent announcement of the ReArm Europe plan, but the path towards spending more, better and together —the only road that will lead to European champions and defence integration in Europe— is not that clear. The tech component should not be left out of the conversation, since the tech dependency of the military will be the upcoming problem in case of an even more stark decoupling from the US.
The EU must navigate this era with a clear-eyed understanding of Trump's priorities and limitations. Wishful thinking will not bring us anywhere. President Trump speaks the language of power. Europeans can only safeguard the transatlantic relations (for the day after, if that day ever comes) if they are strong. If Europe is weak on the world stage, it will become even more irrelevant for the US.
The stronger it is in the international arena, the stronger it will be in its negotiations with the White House. The US is withdrawing from Europe and from its international commitments, all at the same time. For Europe, there is an opportunity to expand its footprint in the world in a mutually beneficial way. For that, the rethinking of European security and recalibrating its presence in the world should accompany each other.
"Donald Trump's second term has ushered us in what can only be described as a predatory Administration"However, they ignored the signs of constant undermining of the European project, until they just could not. US Vice President J. D. Vance made it remarkably clear at the Munich Security Conference: there is a major ideological clash between the European Union and his Administration, and European interests are insignificant. Even when it comes to Ukraine and future security architecture in Europe. This was put into demonstration when the elected President of Ukraine —who has led his country through 3 years of war— was cornered in the White House. It became entirely clear that the new US Administration prefers a victorious Russia with the pretext of ending the conflict. According to the latest news, it even stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Donald Trump's second term has ushered us in what can only be described as a predatory Administration. His maximalist positions, amplified by the influence of tech oligarchs like Elon Musk, mark a clear new era in US foreign policy. For Europe, this presidency demands a fundamental recalibration of its approach to the United States and to its global partnerships.
The America First discourse has already been matched with decisive demonstrations of power. Trump's initial moves —in Greenland, Panama, and Colombia— signal a shock-and-awe strategy aimed at forcing concessions. Though his brinkmanship is not new, its intensity highlights his continued willingness to upend established norms.
The core lesson for Europe is stark: Trump does not value traditional allies or alliances. His Administration acts purely in perceived US interests and Trump himself, it could be argued, sometimes acts solely in his own interest and of his inner circle. Europe can no longer rely on the historical ally rhetoric. It is not at all realistic.
"Europe must brace for a new era in transatlantic relations and work for strong relations with global partners to counterbalance Trump's unilateralism"Europe must brace for a new era in transatlantic relations and work for strong relations with global partners to counterbalance Trump's unilateralism. For that, it should immediately open conversations with international actors, starting with China. The stronger the EU is in the international arena, the stronger it will be in negotiations with the White House. This is not a traditional alliance where the US supports the European project any more, this is a power competition —including against the US—.
A nuanced approach to China
One of the more unpredictable aspects of Trump's presidency is his approach to China. His inauguration speech hinted at a potential thaw in tensions. Yet, he is risk-averse when it comes to defending Taiwan. This contrasts with traditional hardline institutional positions, which could lead to an internal tug-of-war and a more inconsistent China policy for the US. High turnover within the Trump Administration adds another layer of uncertainty.
"Europe can pursue issue-based cooperation —on trade, climate, and technology— and could create a pragmatic relationship with China"This flux opens a door for an EU-China recalibration. Europe can pursue issue-based cooperation —on trade, climate, and technology— and could create a pragmatic relationship with China. At Davos, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was clear that there is room for Sino-European dialogue if China signals a willingness to address trade imbalances and embrace a win-win approach.
So the ball is also on China's court. The starting point would be a clear signalling that China will not be supporting Russia's war efforts in Ukraine and is genuinely open to fairer trade relations. This may sound like wishful thinking —and it might be so—. But this does not change the fact that the EU needs a distinct China policy. Otherwise, it risks being left out in the cold while great powers strike deals.
The green energy transition anchored in trade agreements is the path forward with the Global South
Trump's second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement creates an opportunity for the EU to position itself as the global vanguard, building climate-friendly coalitions and trade agreements. Mitigating climate change and green energy transition is an existential issue in the countries of the Global South, and it's the path to building their economies for the future. Europe should put a mutually beneficial green transition at the heart of its conversations. This won't be easy since there is a risk of comparative advantage for the businesses elsewhere, so the efforts abroad should be matched with efforts at home.
"Europe should put a mutually beneficial green transition at the heart of its conversations"Trump's penchant for protectionism, including tariffs and trade restrictions, will undoubtedly test Europe's resilience. The EU must double down on its diversification of trade partnerships across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The trade agreements that the EU started to conclude —including those with MERCOSUR, Mexico, and Malaysia— are examples of possible win-win scenarios. This will prove a significant buffer against US trade restrictions. It will, however, also need new financing mechanisms in an era where the US is retreating from international aid. Financing European security or financing development in the countries of the Global South risk becoming the new north-south divide. The European Union should be very mindful of that.
Don't drop the ball on security, and arms control questions
While President Trump is unlikely to withdraw from NATO outright, his Administration will undermine it continuously and soon start reducing the US' military presence in Europe. Europe must prepare for this by investing in its own defence capabilities and reducing dependency on the US. This has already become the common wisdom in Brussels and EU capitals with the recent announcement of the ReArm Europe plan, but the path towards spending more, better and together —the only road that will lead to European champions and defence integration in Europe— is not that clear. The tech component should not be left out of the conversation, since the tech dependency of the military will be the upcoming problem in case of an even more stark decoupling from the US.
"Trump's ambivalence toward nuclear weapons and arms control poses grave risks"Trump's ambivalence toward nuclear weapons and arms control poses grave risks. Without US leadership as the global nuclear umbrella, middle powers may feel compelled and able to develop their own arsenals, setting a dangerous precedent. Through sustained dialogue with Washington and working with other global powers, the EU must preserve multilateral frameworks remain intact even if the US takes a back seat. Europe should also work on mutually beneficial security partnerships in Europe and beyond. The recent conversations with India illustrate how the EU might add a security and defence component to its engagements on the world stage.
The way forward
The EU must navigate this era with a clear-eyed understanding of Trump's priorities and limitations. Wishful thinking will not bring us anywhere. President Trump speaks the language of power. Europeans can only safeguard the transatlantic relations (for the day after, if that day ever comes) if they are strong. If Europe is weak on the world stage, it will become even more irrelevant for the US.
The stronger it is in the international arena, the stronger it will be in its negotiations with the White House. The US is withdrawing from Europe and from its international commitments, all at the same time. For Europe, there is an opportunity to expand its footprint in the world in a mutually beneficial way. For that, the rethinking of European security and recalibrating its presence in the world should accompany each other.
Ilke Toygür
Directora del Global Policy Center de la IE University
Directora del Global Policy Center y profesora de práctica de política europea en la School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs de la IE University. Además, es investigadora senior asociada en el programa de Europa, Rusia y Eurasia del CSIS en Washington D. C. y miembro electo de la junta directiva de la Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) en Bruselas. Sus principales áreas de especialización incluyen la integración europea, las elecciones y la democracia en Europa occidental, la geopolítica de Europa y las relaciones transatlánticas. Sus investigaciones y artículos han aparecido en Carnegie Europe, el German Marshall Fund of the United States, la Brookings Institution, el Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Der Spiegel y El País, entre otros.
Ahora en portada
29 de julio de 2026
29 de julio de 2026
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