Trump isolates himself, while we come closer together

It is impossible to analyse the current international order without discussing the United States. Global economic, military and cultural hegemony has been defined by Washington for the past 75 years and, more clearly, since the fall of the USSR in 1991.

The flag of thirteen stripes and fifty stars has represented for decades, for many —though not for all— the symbol of democracy, the rule of law and freedom. However, the nation that seemed to want to expand democracy beyond its borders, address collective security, normalise free trade as a source of wealth and aspire to lead the free world (not without trade-offs, it must be said) has changed its priorities overnight.

"The scene that Trump and Vance left us in the Oval Office, in front of the press, alongside President Zelensky, will be studied by future generations"

I leave to historians the exact historiographical determination of the moment when this paradigm exploded, although I am convinced that the scene that Trump and Vance left us in the Oval Office, in front of the press, alongside President Zelensky, is highly likely to become that historic milestone that will be studied by future generations. The world's foremost power berating the democratically elected president of an allied country resisting the Russian invasion, and making frivolous comments about his attire. If, as Marshall McLuhan said, "the medium is the message", that day the US sent the world a rather clarifying one, which does not seem to indicate anything good. It is surprising how casually he accepts that he feels more comfortable in television reality shows than in state meetings between world leaders.

That day I was also in Washington as a member of a European People's Party mission to strengthen ties with our allies across the Atlantic. The visit was scheduled before Trump's victory. Throughout the week, we met with congressmen and senators, both Republican and Democratic, with academics, analysts and even military personnel. I know the United States well: I studied there, worked there and return at least a couple of times a year, and I had never felt so bewildered and disconnected from the mental framework of American politics. The feeling with which I returned is disheartening. I suspect that for this new American Administration, collective security, the rule of law and the promotion of democracy and trade are no longer a priority. And worst of all, what I suspected in those days has only been confirmed with each passing day.

"We can all negotiate"

The Trump doctrine seems to lack any desire to lead the world, or even to lead the West. It is an anarchic and hyperbolic renunciation of exercising any type of hegemony or consolidating any sphere of influence, executed through tweets with the sole objective of inflaming his supporters at home. Completely oblivious to the impact of his decisions on the world. If I were a competitor of the United States —that is, if I were China— I would be quite pleased with American foreign policy consisting of sowing distrust among its allies —tough with Ukraine and transactional with Russia— imposing tariffs on its trading partners. Further, reducing its investment in third countries and withdrawing into itself. It is surprising that his objective seems to be to go from being the fundamental centerpiece of a world order that they led to becoming its greatest disruptor. The consequences will be devastating for a decadent political system that seems to be shifting from a gerontocracy to an oligarchy of tech gurus.

"In just three months, Trump has damaged all of the United States' great historical alliances and dynamited a multilateral order"

In just three months, Trump has damaged all of the United States' great historical alliances and dynamited a multilateral order that, with great difficulty, has managed to advance between international law and the balances of disparate political systems since the end of the Second World War. He has hinted at the annexation of Canada and Greenland, imposed the highest tariffs on all his trading partners, and humiliated Ukraine and his two closest neighbours (Canada and Mexico), sending a less than hopeful message to other countries such as Taiwan. Regarding Europe, he has declared that "the EU was founded to frustrate the United States", imposed tariffs on us —we weren't going to be spared— calculated arbitrarily and without any kind of economic basis, and his vice president has lectured us in Munich and Paris. As if J.D. Vance could lecture anyone with a minimum of common sense...

Our response can only be Union. Union and the boldness to understand that, in a world where everything is negotiable, we can all negotiate. Trump (and some of his technological acolytes) threaten the EU from the outside, but also from within, by supporting destabilising parties that will have to explain clearly how US tariffs benefit their countries. Those who bet on "Making Europe Great Again" would do well to fulfil what they promise and understand that Europe's greatness lies in uniting: in joint rearmament, in the pursuit of European competitiveness in a hostile world, and in the fight against our greatest security threat, Putin. It is surprising that even Le Pen has understood this better than Abascal.

It is too early to draw too many conclusions about what the second Trump Administration will represent for the future of the United States and the world. For now, the stock market and macroeconomic data do not show very promising results for the US. But one thing is clear: the problem with treating your friends badly is that you end up alone. And, moreover, you end up uniting everyone else.