Five issues that could decide the next US President

Today is Election Day in the United States. We will probably not have definitive and consistent results for a few days. A few votes will decide who will be the new occupant of the White House. Meanwhile, there are various factors to keep in mind and consider. Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former president Donald Trump (R) will be counting on voters in a select number of swing states where every vote counts. It’s going to be a long day, here are the five things you need to keep an eye on:

Reproductive healthcare rights are on the ballot

In 2020, abortion was legal across the United States as a result of the longstanding Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, which preserved it and legalized it throughout the country. Now, since the Dobbs. V. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022, each state is choosing its own path on whether or not abortion should be legal, and if so, what limits should there be on it. 

"Ultimately, abortion has been a key mobilizing issue for many voters, with 61 percent of voters viewing it as a highly important issue"

Ultimately, abortion has been a key mobilizing issue for many voters, with 61 percent of voters viewing it as a highly important issue, according to recent polling from Langer Research Associates and Ipsos for ABC News. Vice President Harris enjoys a +15 advantage in being trusted to handle this issue according to the poll. In particular, conservative Latina women are mobilising. In Arizona, these women will decide on Proposition 139, which regulates abortion rights. A simple majority is enough for them. The approval or rejection of the amendment will be a good indicator of the direction of the mobilisation.


The impact of Arab-American voters in Michigan

It has been over one year since the October 7th Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel. In its aftermath, there has been much discussion and debate in the United States over how to get hostages home —including Americans— and how to avoid civilian deaths in Gaza.

"former President Trump has received the support and endorsements of several prominent Arab-American and Muslim American leaders in Michigan"

Michigan is home to the highest concentration of Arab-Americans in the United States, with over 400,000 living in the Detroit metropolitan area. Dearborn, Michigan became the first majority Arab-American city in the United States in 2023, with 55 percent of its 110,000 residents having Middle Eastern or North African ancestry per the most recent census data. When then-Vice President Biden and then-President Trump faced off in Michigan in 2020, Biden won the state by 154,188 votes.

The Arab-American vote may be the deciding factor in who wins this key Midwestern state. While Biden won the state in 2020, since then, former President Trump has received the support and endorsements of several prominent Arab-American and Muslim American leaders in Michigan. For candidate Harris, any decision or statement will be labelled opportunistic. She is a sitting vice-president, who has not moved in the direction that is in the interests of this important constituency. Whoever wins 15 electoral college votes in Michigan may win the election.

Inflation and the economy

If you ask any American —Republican, Democrat, or Independent —what are the issues that matter to them this election, most will at some point mention the economy. According to Gallup, it is the most critical issue for voters. Young people are frightened by an economy whose wealth is not trickling down to them.

"Trump has a 54 percent to 45 percent advantage versus Harris as far as voters viewing him as being better able to handle the economy"

The U.S. economy is growing, GDP rose by 2.8 percent in the third quarter —less than economists’ 3.1 percent projection—. However, per Gallup, Trump has a 54 percent to 45 percent advantage versus Harris as far as voters viewing him as being better able to handle the economy. 

The drama for candidate Harris is that Republican states have taken advantage of federal measures to grow. Solar plants and clean energy in Georgia or semiconductor factories in Nevada have not brought sufficient advantage. In the former, Biden won by less than 12,000 votes, while in the latter, Democrats won only 2.4 per cent more votes in 2020. Given the current technical tie, this difference is not enough.

The Puerto Rican vote in Pennsylvania

At a recent Trump campaign rally in Madison Square Garden, a comedian referred to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage." The remarks reverberated across the United States with widespread condemnation, including from both Republican and Democratic elected officials.

"Candidate Trump needs a success in Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Will he lose Pennsylvania as a result of these remarks?"

Furthermore, world-renowned Puerto Rican musical artist Bad Bunny decided to endorse Harris after the remarks at this Trump rally. Not long after, musician Nicky Jam withdrew his endorsement of President Trump.

Notably, swing state Pennsylvania is home to approximately 472,000 individuals of Puerto Rican descent per 2023 U.S. Census data. In 2020, Biden won the state of Pennsylvania by 81,660 votes. 19 electoral votes open up an almost unbridgeable gap. Candidate Trump needs a success in Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Will he lose Pennsylvania as a result of these remarks?


President Biden calls Trump supporters "garbage"

In a recent call remarking on the Trump campaign rally in Madison Square Garden, President Biden appears to have referred to Trump supporters as "garbage." This comment from the sitting president sent shockwaves throughout U.S. media, with former president Trump capitalizing on this by riding in a garbage truck in the crucial swing state of Wisconsin.

"Trumpism has a unique quality: its voters are loyal. The disparagement of the Democratic side reaffirms their identity and their desire to vote"

Back in 2016, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to Trump supporters as "deplorables." In the aftermath of the 2016 election, this remark – along with not campaigning in Wisconsin – is viewed as potentially having been key in costing her the election.

Supporters of President Trump have been in lockstep in supporting the former president since the assassination attempt on him in Butler, Pennsylvania, and subsequent assassination attempt in Florida. Between these two attempts on his life and the various legal cases against him, many Republican voters view Trump as being persecuted on their behalf. Ultimately, President Biden’s remarks may mobilize more Republicans to the polls in a manner which could prove decisive for Trump. Trumpism has a unique quality: its voters are loyal. The disparagement of the Democratic side reaffirms their identity and their desire to vote.