The Five Things to Watch Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election

In the United States, campaign season is in full swing! With the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primary now having concluded with former U.S. president Donald Trump having won both and former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley still in the race, things are heating up. There is no doubt that President Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee and regardless of if Trump or Haley represent the Republican Party, they will be contending with the same issues. Here are the top five things to look out for in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

It's the economy, stupid

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton famously won the race to the White House in 1992 on his ability to understand voters’ top concern: the economy. History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme, and here we are once again with the state of the economy as a top concern for voters.

Whether it is inflation, interest rates, or concerns about job security in the age of AI, voters are worried about the economy. Ultimately, Biden will have to convince voters that things can improve with another four years, while Republicans will have to try and persuade them of the need for a different approach. Biden's advantage is that economic conditions will improve this year, but will those improvements trickle down to the real economy and job creation, and will it be felt by socio-demographic groups that will not vote for Biden if they do not have a decent job?

Immigration

Voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire made it clear according to polling and in interviews with countless reporters, that one of their top concerns is immigration. There is no dispute that there is a humanitarian crisis at the U.S. southern border. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas met with senior Mexican officials to discuss this very issue.

[Receive the most up-to-date analysis to your email or mobile through our Telegram channel]

Immigration was a key issue in Trump’s first campaign for the White House in 2016. The Biden administration has struggled with how best to manage it as Congressional Republicans try to impeach Secretary Mayorkas. While it remains unclear what policy fix is needed, Republican and Independent voters – as well as increasingly many Democrats – are greatly concerned about this, making it a priority for the Biden campaign, and whoever his opponent will be. The eternal unfulfilled promise to regularize the dreamers could cost Biden dearly. And new concerns arise: Hispanic Republicans are calling for less regulation and more forceful immigration policy.

America and the World

The United States is at something of a crossroads on the world stage. And the speed of change has precipitated a kind of culture war over US interests abroad. Under President Biden there has been an emphasis on diplomatic engagement and yet, Europe is consumed by the war in Ukraine, post-Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th there is increasing instability in the Middle East, and tensions are rising the South China Sea after Taiwan’s most recent election of a pro-independence president.



Americans are increasingly tired of the expectation that they intervene in global conflicts. When the Biden administration withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, there was outrage at how it was done, more so than that it was being done. Trump understood the rising isolationist sentiment in the United States as President. Even a more internationalist Republican such as Haley has amped up the rhetoric on global trade, particularly regarding China. The change is relevant: economic security is prioritized and alliances are sought on mutual interests, which do not always include human rights or democracy.

Whoever is elected U.S. President in 2024 will have to deal with an increasingly unstable and multipolar world. Americans do not want to deal with their economy being subject to supply chain disruptions caused by Putin’s unjust war in Ukraine or the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea. The question is, will these challenges be navigated through greater military support for Ukraine and a more aggressive stance against the Houthis, or will America retreat from the world? 

Latino Voters: a force to be reckoned with

Latino political influence is rising fast and these voters are interested in hearing from both major parties’ candidates. Hispanic eligible voter population in this year’s election will be approximately 36.2 million. This is a 12% increase of Hispanic eligible voters since the 2020 election. Furthermore – and more strikingly – this represents 50% of the newly eligible voters in 2024 versus the last presidential election.

According to a recent USA Today-Suffolk University poll, there is near even interest in the candidacies of former President Trump and incumbent President Biden. Per the poll, Trump has 39% support from Latino voters, while Biden counts on 34% support. Expect both Republicans and Democrats to enthusiastically court the vote of this increasingly diverse community. It is time for a tactic that identifies the interests of Hispanic mothers in Arizona and New Mexico, the older exiles in Florida, the new lifeblood of California. It is time, then, to say goodbye to the vision of Hispanics as a homogeneous group.

Biden is Unpopular and Trump is Divisive

Statistically, most likely Trump will face off against President Biden, though Haley is still a possibility as the Republican nominee. At this time, President Biden’s approval rating is at 42%, and he is underwater on all key issues. With that steady average and an economy that won't take off, Biden needs to accelerate on his campaign. Or is it too late? Meanwhile, Trump’s Favorable (Net) and Unfavorable (Net) numbers are dead even at 48% each. His voters act like fans, loyal and repetitive. However, he fails to capture the independent vote that would take him back to the White House. It is the price he pays for his character.

In short: Anything can happen. Stay tuned, because American elections have global consequences.