Brexit, ¿y ahora qué? en cinco artículos… según Jonathan Portes

May’s ‘Plan for Britain’ tells us nothing about Brexit. That’s quite deliberate, Simon Usherwood | LSE Brexit blog| 24 de marzo de 2017

¿Cuál es el plan de Theresa May?

“The easiest way to understand the ‘Plan for Britain’ is as a re-presentation of the February White Paper, itself a dressing-up of Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech in January. The same 12 negotiating objectives are listed once more, but now connected to a set of ideas about the rest of government, grouped under four headings.”

Theresa May’s Article 50 letter fires the Brexit starting gun, Anand Menon | New Statesman | 29 de marzo de 2017

La dimensión política de la negociación del artículo 50

“Perhaps the most striking thing about the Brexit process to date has been the remarkable degree of control exercised over it by Downing Street. Brexit means Brexit, declared the Prime Minister, and since that day it has been her who has defined what precisely it does mean. After a quarter century of bitter division over Europe, culminating in a referendum where the Parliamentary party was split down the middle, she has managed to unite the overwhelming majority of the Conservative party for a “hard Brexit” that very few claimed to support a year ago.”

No EU trade deal is better than a bad deal? Don’t bet on it, Theresa May, Jonathan Portes | The Guardian | 23 de marzo de 2017

¿Y qué pasa si no hay acuerdo?

“We trade successfully with the US and many other countries under WTO rules. But, when it comes to those countries, we haven’t spent the last 40 years slowly and painfully integrating not just our trade but the fundamental infrastructure of our economic, legal, regulatory and bureaucratic processes. In economic terms, we are friends with the US, but we’re not married to it. Divorces are always painful – but just walking away isn’t going to lead to a happy outcome.

Brexiters must lose if Brexit is to succeed, Martin Wolfe | Financial Times| 28 de marzo de 2017

Las consecuencias económicas de largo plazo

“The evidence on modern trade is clear: distance is of enormous importance. The supply chains that link physical goods and services together work best over short distances. The models on which Brexiters rely ignore this reality. This is also why the creation of the single market required substantial regulatory harmonisation, which allows relatively frictionless cross-border trade. Brexiters will discover, too, that all trade deals impose constraints on national autonomy and the more market-opening the deal, the tighter the constraints.”

EU Citizens Back Their Leaders’ Negotiating Stance on Brexit, Thomas Raines, et al. | Chatham House |29 de marzo de 2017

La opinión pública en la EU-27

“EU leaders are broadly supported by their electorates in adopting a pragmatic but firm line with the UK. European voters appear to share the concern of EU leaders that Brexit should not undermine the fundamentals of the EU. But Britain’s leaders should not be too discouraged; these results suggest there is a space in European public opinion for a reasonable and balanced deal – but Britain should not push too far or expect fundamental concessions. The UK government should be aware that EU leaders would likely face domestic opposition to a deal which is seen to compromise on core principles.”

Jonathan Portes es profesor de economía y políticas públicas en el King’s College London y ‘fellow’ del centro de investigación UK in a changing Europe. Su último libro es Capitalism: 50 Ideas You Really Need to Know (2016).

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